Colloquium in November 2025
Sinn Won Han (Yonsei University)
Japan and South Korea both experienced rapid declines in total fertility rates (TFR) through the early 2000s, but their trajectories have since diverged, with Korea’s TFR remaining far below Japan’s.
This presentation examines how youth labor market conditions help explain this divergence. First, using aggregate time-series data, I show that Korea’s sustained TFR decline is largely driven by a sharp fall in the age-specific fertility rate at ages 25–29, a pattern far less pronounced in Japan. I then highlight a distinctive feature of Korea’s labor market—the large and rising share of young men who are economically inactive—as a potential downward pressure on nuptiality and fertility.
Combining macro evidence with a cross-national factorial vignette experiment on marriage intentions, I assess whether and how increases in male economic inactivity—and the resulting sense of future economic insecurity among youth—are associated with the ongoing postponement and decline of nuptiality and fertility.
Together, the findings illuminate how youth labor market insecurity can differentially shape family formation in Korea and Japan.
