Colloquium in Jun. 2022
Hwang, Jisoo (Professor, College of Liberal Studies at Seoul National Univ., South Korea)
This study analyzes trends in cohort fertility in South Korea. With census and vital statistics data, the study analyzes the fertility-related intensive margin (timing of childbearing and number of children) and extensive margin (marriage and childbearing) of women cohorts born in the 1950s through 80s in Korea, and finds three meaningful patterns.
First, the study finds that primary factors in low fertility vary by the cohorts. While in the earlier cohorts low fertility is more likely to be associated with intensive margin (delays of initial childbearing or decreases in the average number of children), in the recent cohorts it is more likely to be associated with extensive margin (increases in the proportion of those never married or with no children). Second, decomposing changes in cohort fertility by educational level, the study finds that these trends are more likely to be induced by changes within the educational group (rate effect) than changes in the composition of the groups across the cohorts (composition effect). Third, although in the most cohorts women’s educational level is still negatively associated with their marriage rate and average number of children, in the cohorts born in the 1970s and 80s, it has a U-shaped relationship with the proportion of those with no children; the percentage of those with no children increased among the women with the highest and lowest level of education in the recent cohorts.
Based on these findings, as a better way to alleviate low fertility in Korea, it is called for public supports to relieve the problems suppressing women’s marriage and fertility, such as high housing prices, labor market uncertainty, and opportunity costs of childbearing in their career.
♣ Please let us apologize for not uploading the photos for this virtual colloquium.
